Lacuna · Research Desk

The gap between the price and the argument.

Short, opinionated editorials on prediction markets. We pair frontier AI with sharp human editors to weigh everything a market is pricing — market data, news flow, on-chain signals, and the conversation moving the trade — then pick a side, cite our sources, and update the call in public when the evidence moves.

23
analyses
10
Yes calls
13
No calls
16h ago
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khamenei.ir / CC BY 4.0
geopolitics Geopolitics Lead story

Shattered Army, Stubborn Regime

On Polymarket: Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Iran's military is wrecked and its population is furious, but a broken army and a fallen regime are not the same thing — and 19¢ on YES is still too generous.

Lacuna's call No
19¢ Polymarket YES
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