Calibrated research on prediction markets.
Markets see talks; Israel sees targets
At 65% YES, this market is pricing in a ceasefire that both parties have categorically, publicly, and repeatedly refused to negotiate.
Brent at $140 makes June moot
The Hormuz chokepoint, a downed US pilot, and tankers sitting idle have structurally broken the pre-war oil pricing regime through at least June.
No one catches NVIDIA in two weeks
With a $100B+ market-cap moat and barely two weeks left in April, NVIDIA's grip on the #1 spot is as close to a lock as prediction markets get.
Iran's red lines outlast any blueprint
At 58 cents, the market is wildly confusing a ceasefire blueprint on paper with the "permanent deal" a live military standoff and irreconcilable red lines make nearly impossible.
Russia's Easter halt was theater, not truce
Brazil is Lula's race to lose
April's Fed hold trades cheap at 98¢
Hormuz closed the book on April WTI
Trump's Iran strike is already over
Iran is eroding, not falling
Xi's purges are consolidation, not collapse
Trump's April China trip slips to May
Hungary's Magyar is a done deal
Moscow is running a war, not talks
Keiko cleared round one. Markets haven't.
The Iran war isn't ending in April
Eurovision 2026 is four countries, not five
What dropped wasn't the Epstein list
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